Cicero Predicts.
Ladies and Gentlemen - the next President of the United States of America.
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This blog used to focus strictly on politics and policy. It will now be more broadly based on my whims. Don't worry. it'll probably still have a lot of policy and politics... ;)
- Cicero In Pants
- Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- My name is Cory MacDonald. I am a Lawyer and International Relations specialist by training. I am a Politics and Policy Junkie by choice. I live, work and play in Toronto, Canada. The views expressed in this blog are solely my own and do not represent the views of my employer. They also do not affect the way I do my job. I'm a professional.
5 comments:
Hasn't he said several times he has no desire to reenter political life? (in the manner of an elected person)
I thought he said that at the 1996 TED Conference in California. Though I could be wrong.
If he was going to declare, I don't think he would have made light of it last night on the Oscars. Moreover with Hillary in the race, a lot the people who worked for him last time are busy with another campaign. I think he could get some money from Hollywood, but I wonder if he could mount an effective campaign for the nomination with Hilary and Obama in the race. That said...you never can tell.
"And the Academy Award for Most Overt Pre-Declaration Non-Declaration goes to..."
Note that I predicted this before the Academy Awards.
The only thing I can imagine that is keeping him out of the race is a pact with Hillary. It is more than possible that she and Bill have already had him commit to staying out of it.
Besides that he has every reason to run: And lots of ways to find money.
I tried to reply yesterday, I guess it didn't work.
There are two important things that will draw Gore the rest of the way into the race:
1) An implosion of the current candidates caused by the constant mauling of one another; and
2) A concerted effort from local organizers to have a unifying figure that will help them organize and elect more regional/local candidates.
Al Gore let this group down the last time, but he was also wearing a Bill Clinton necktie and didn't have any of the benefits of that tie accrue. This time around Mr. Gore is the top democratic draw anywhere he chooses to go - with the possible exception of Mr. Clinton. Not Hillary, Bill.
Regardless, any person who has already won 50 million votes will not have very much trouble getting his name on enough ballots to win the primary. He has until the middle of December in NH.
His "undeclared" poll numbers are better than most of the declared candidates, and once the media decides to give him "Arnold" (who was at less than 10% before declaring) like exposure, he will probably push up into the low 40s nationally. Not to mention the fact that everyone in america thinks that Al is "owed" something.
For the record, almost all of Hillary's senior people are not from the Gore Campaign. In fact, most of Gore's 2000 staff are either not getting involved directly, or are limiting themselves to gubernatorial and senate races.
As for the local crews, Gore volunteers have a lot in commons with Deaniacs - they are committed in a cult like way and will sign back up in a hurry if needed. Regardless of who they are following now, they will come home in a hurry if need be for two simple reasons
1) Al Gore can actually win; and
2) Al Gore has something to say (none of the other candidates seem to do anything other than mindless self promotion).
Al Gore has been making fun of himself since the day after he conceded the last time. As we saw Sunday night, he is at ease in front of massive audiences - the same cannot be said of Hillary. As a result he has a sincerity that can only be compared to Reagan or Clinton - This remains the strongest knock against Hillary.
As for a side deal with Slick Willy- I doubt Gore would do that to himself. All of the key things that preclude presidential runs are non-issues to Gore - he can raise 100 million in a matter of weeks - taking it directly away from Obama and Hillary. It is an effective double hit - as he makes a boatload, he will choke off their source. Hollywood proved over the weekend that it endorses Gore.
Now all he has to do is win Tennessee.
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