"I called it" - Stephen Colbert

So two comments on Stephane Dion. Here is the first:

I called it. Yes I did. Months ago. And I did it in 'public'. OK, it was a tiny public - my friends, my MSN name, and of course any people on the bus that I could corner into a discussion on politics. (boy oh boy, do they get awkward!)

Now I need to make a big caveat. I waffled between when I called it and when it happened. I waffled a lot. On the day of the convention I waffled all day. I mean, I thought that the math pointed to a Dion win, but only if Dion and Kennedy stuck to a deal. I worried that Kennedy might decide to king-make someone else. The Prisoner's Dilemma was a serious complicating factor. In addition, what was to stop the "big kids" - the ex-roommates from University of Toronto - from ganging up on their little brothers and kicking them out of the sandbox?

Nevertheless, all year and all day, as the campaign went on my gut kept pointing to Dion. Why?

- Because Ignatieff ran the most ineffective Air Campaign since the German Luftwaffe in the Battle of Britain.

- and Because he came across as a carpetbagger who wouldn't want to live in Canada unless he got to lead it. I mean its not like he seemed to be thinking about us. If he was would he have made so many garish errors whenever he opened his mouth.

- Because as perfect as Bob Rae is in that "I look and sound like a leader would on a TV show" way - he is still Bob Rae: a lifetime foe of the liberals who is perceived by many as having been a disaster the last time he was given similar responsibility. For a lot of voters that added up to "Bob Rae? Really? We're seriously considering BOB RAE??"

- Parce que Gerrard Kennedy ne parle pas francais.

- Because Paul Martin is an Anglophone from Windsor, not a Francophone from Quebec and the Liberals like to alternate leaders. (by the way, I don't know if you folks have noticed but that pattern since Trudeau has been Francophone winner, Anglophone sacrificial lamb. rinse repeat.)

- Because the negatives people kept mentioning (bad English and seen as a traitor in Quebec) were exactly the same negatives I used to hear about a guy named Jean Chretien.

- Because everyone's best strategic moves, when looked at clearly still pointed to a Dion win.

So in my mind Dion was the guy to beat. I just kept expecting someone to perhaps come up with a strategy to beat him. I guess they ultimately couldn't. It makes me wonder why there were so many "no one expected this!" headlines the next day. (Particularly since lots of pundits were heard to predict it immediately following the delegate selection meetings. Rex Murphy, Chantale Hebert, Andrew Coyne - I'm looking at you.)

So I get to type "I Called It."