What Not To Do With Rona Ambrose

The buzz among the chattering busybodies (like me) that care about this sort of thing, is that a cabinet shuffle is coming in the Canadian Federal government. The ouster of the current embattled Environment Minister, Rona Ambrose, is the central rumour within the rumour. Naturally, since it is so buzzed by this point, it may end up being a self-defeating (as opposed to self-fulfilling) prophecy. All of that is very nice, very political, inside baseball stuff.

But!

The part of the rumour that has suddenly started to concern me but that no one else is scrutinising is the idea that Minister Ambrose may be moved to Intergovernmental Affairs. The reasoning behind this appears to be that before her political life, she was at one point a low level (the "senior" in her old title doesn't mean high level, folks) civil servant in the Alberta ministry responsible for intergovernmental affairs. Therefore, the thinking goes, its an elegant fit to make her that minister.

That might be some bad thinking.

Minister Ambrose's problem is not that she doesn't grasp the environment file. Being a Cabinet Minister is not about your policy expertise with respect to substantive issues. Certainly, to be effective, your ability to grasp your issues and to do your homework is a necessary condition for success, but it is far from sufficient. Prior experience in the area is never seen as anything more than a useful bonus.

Other characteristics are crucial elements. Charisma, will, excellent communications skills, shrewd political judgement, ability to build consensus, knowing how and when to pick fights and when to make alliances, networking. Those are the ingrediants of the ideal cabinet minister. It doesn't mean all cabinet ministers have all of those characteristics but it sure would be nice if they did.

Also, of course, representing a particular part of the country is a huge part of the job that is separate from whatever your substantive Ministry happens to be. Gender, race, age and language will also come in to play. Thats why making a cabinet is tough. There's a lot to balance.Ministry's that have big budgets but no hot button front burner issues are good places to put the Ministers that you have in your cabinet for such purposes.

But some Ministries require a delicate, shrewd touch. In Canada right now, before the election that is almost assuredly happening soon, one of the places where a minister should be most deft, is intergovernmental affairs. Both politically and for the good of the country, please, do not give this portfolio to Minister Ambrose.

Look at the scenario: There is a Conservative government in power in Ottawa. The Bloc Quebecois is leading the polls in Quebec. There is a vulnerable Liberal government in Quebec. The Party Quebecois wants a referendum. Fortunately for Federalists, Boisclair has not been good for his party's fortunes, but there is nothing necessarily permanent about that. In addition, we just went through the great "Quebecois are a Nation" gambit. Finally, the man that Stephen Harper is running against in the next election was a very successful Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs who knows the department inside and out. If the environment is his jab, don't be surprised if his uppercut is intergovernmental affairs. Know what I'm saying?

While I grant that the deck has, in some ways, been stacked against Minister Ambrose on the Environment File, a fair consensus has arisen that she has not demonstrated that she is seasoned enough, shrewd enough, or deft enough to be a high profile Minister in a strategic portfolio. The fact that she spent a few years in a cubicle writing briefing notes on Intergovernmental Affairs issues will not save her.

The post is better suited to a trusted Quebec Lieutenant - maybe Lawrence Cannon or Maxime Bernier. As for where to put Ambrose, I don't really know. I'm thinking about it, but I'm not the one who over-promoted her in the first place.